Lamar Smith, writing in the Washington Post : The conventional wisdom has already settled like a blanket over Washington. Allegedly, Hispanics flocked to the polls to punish Republicans for the Arizona immigration law. They “saved” the Senate for Democrats. And on and on. The conventional wisdom, however, is wrong. The 2010 election actually paints a very bright picture of the Republican Party's relations with this country's growing Hispanic population. Exit polls reported by CNN
Over on the home page , I raise the 10 unanswered questions from Election 2010 — the unsolved mysteries, such as why the GOP wave skipped most of the House races in North Carolina, why Illinois Republicans lost the one race they seemed most likely to win while winning many other races, and what on earth is wrong with 358,276 South Carolinians. Jim Geraghty
Continued here:
The Midterms Answered a Lot of Questions, but Not All
The remaining unresolved House elections, ordered by partisan advantage in the current vote count (Republicans listed second): Jim Costa vs. Andy Vidak in California’s 20th district. GOP candidate leads by 1,823 votes. Solomon Ortiz vs. Blake Farenthold in Texas’s 27th district. GOP candidate leads by 799 votes. Dan Maffei vs. Ann Marie Buerkle in New York’s 25th district. GOP candidate leads by 659 votes. Melissa Bean vs. Joe Walsh in Illinois’s 8th district. GOP candidate leads by 553 votes. Jerry McNerney vs. David Harmer in California’s 11th district. GOP candidate trails by 121 votes. Rick Larsen vs. John Koster in Washington’s 2nd district. GOP candidate trails by 507 votes. Ben Chandler vs. Andy Barr in Kentucky’s 6th district. GOP candidate trails by 600 votes. Gerry Connolly vs. Keith Fimian in Virginia’s 11th district. GOP candidate trails by 920 votes. Gabrielle Giffords vs. Jesse Kelly in Arizona’s 8th district. GOP candidate trails by 2,356 votes. Raul Grijalva vs. Ruth McClung in Arizona’s 7th district. GOP candidate trails by 4,083 votes. Adam Smith vs. Richard Muri in Washington’s 9th district. The AP has called this race for Smith, the incumbent Democrat, with a 12,000 vote margin, but only 77 percent of ballots have been counted. Jim Geraghty
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The Remaining Ten, Sorted by GOP Leads and Deficits
We're still waiting on official calls or concessions in 11 House races; all of them feature Democrat incumbents (whose names appear first in this list). Raul Grijalva vs. Ruth McClung in Arizona's 7th district. Gabrielle Giffords vs. Jesse Kelly in Arizona's 8th district. Jerry McNerney vs. David Harmer in California's 11th district.* Jim Costa vs. Andy Vidak in California's 20th district.* Melissa Bean vs. Joe Walsh in Illinois's 8th district.* Ben Chandler vs. Andy Barr in Kentucky's 6th district. Dan Maffei vs. Ann Marie Buerkle in New York's 25th district. Solomon Ortiz vs. Blake Farenthold in Texas's 27th district.* Gerry Connolly vs. Keith Fimian in Virginia's 11th district. Rick Larsen vs. John Koster in Washington's 2nd district.* Adam Smith vs. Richard Muri in Washington's 9th district. The ones marked with an asterisk are ones where the GOP challenger has a narrow lead in the most recent numbers. Jim Geraghty
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The GOP House Gain Floor Is 60, the Ceiling Is 71
I've been talking and Tweeting much of the night, as by the time I am ready to post, the information feels out of date. There are a lot of scoreboards out there, but a couple of quick thoughts . . . It's the biggest Republican gain in two generations — and yet, because of a few key races, it feels a little disappointing. Wins to savor tonight: Marco Rubio in Florida, Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, Bobby Schilling in Illinois. Nikki Haley in South Carolina. Daniel Webster's defeat of the Devil in Florida's 8th District. Susana Martinez's big win in New Mexico. Allen West. Chip Cravaack beating James Oberstar in Minnesota. Mick Mulvaney beating John Spratt in South Carolina. The big comeback in New York State's House races. Right now, GOP gains are at 57 seats in the House, 6 seats in the Senate. Renee Ellmers finished narrowly ahead of Bob Etheridge in NC-2. Oddly, the other endangered Democrats hung on! I suspect a major question in the coming days will be understanding why Republicans did phenomenally well in House races, pretty darn well in gubernatorial races (still waiting on a few), and a little disappointing in Senate races (losing NV, WV, CT, DE, CA, and perhaps WA and CO). One theory will be that the Democrats successfully personalized these races. Or perhaps it will be a question of candidate quality. I ended up loving the tenaciousness of Linda McMahon's campaign, but her WWE past was less than ideal for a run against a state attorney general. Sharron Angle's flaws? We can discuss them more later, but we all know they're there. Ditto Christine O'Donnell. Dan Maes. Carl Paladino. A lot of key races ended up with candidates who were . . .
As noted, one of my rules of thumb for my election predictions was that any incumbent below 50 is in at least a little trouble, and an incumbent in the mid-40s is in real trouble. The more well-known and well-established the incumbent, the more trouble they're in. I usually give those folks about one or two percent of the remaining undecided; that's how I ended up getting Massachusetts right. My last pick was California's Senate race, reluctantly picking Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer over Republican Carly Fiorina, spurred in part by Boxer reaching 49.5 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. But in between writing down the picks and now, she's slid to 48.5 percent , a very tenuous position in my usual formula. Looking at the RCP average for
Wow. Gallup's final generic numbers are as good for Republicans and as bad for Democrats as we have seen this cycle: The final
You'll recall Obi-Wan laid out four scenarios: the “Fading GOP Wave” Scenario, the “Okay Wave” Scenario, the “Happy Times Wave” Scenario, and the “Superwave.” Judging by the latest round of House polls , the early voting numbers , the professional prognosticators' sudden worry about traditionally rock-solid Democratic wins , and the apologetic ads from endangered House Democrats , six days out, this looks like at least the Okay Wave Scenario, probably the Happy Times Scenario, and Superwave cannot be ruled out (but doesn't quite look likely). There are spots of legitimate Republican disappointment. The statewide races in California and New York seem stubbornly immune to the national GOP wave (while some GOP House candidates are doing quite well in competitive districts in those blue states). Iowa is another state where some GOP challengers aren't being carried along as well as elsewhere in the region. Joe Manchin may hang on in West Virginia, as well as Patty Murray in Washington. I think Joe Miller should be okay, but Alaska seems to feature a particularly inscrutable political landscape. But beyond that, the GOP is looking good in every state and district that they ought to win, and quite a few they shouldn't. A lot of readers are wondering about party-switchers after Tuesday, but that's very hard to project or assess until we know which, if any, conservative Democrats are left standing. Many may conclude that if they survived this year, they can survive anything, and they may have a point. Others may wonder if party-switching really would ensure any long-term career health; Parker Griffith and Arlen Specter learned you can embrace a new party, but your new party's base may not embrace you. Jim Geraghty
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Looks Like a ‘Happy Times Wave’ Today
Wow. The Senate races may still look tough for the GOP, but this year's wave is hitting the House races, hard. The Hill 2010 Midterm Election poll, surveying nearly 17,000 likely voters in 42 toss-up districts over four weeks, points to a massive Republican wave that, barring an extraordinary turnaround, will deliver crushing nationwide defeats for President Obama’s party. The data suggest a GOP pickup that could easily top 50 seats (the party needs 39 for control of the House). Of the 42 districts polled for The Hill, all but two of which are currently Democratic, 31 had Republicans in the lead. Democrats were up in just seven, and four were tied. In addition, there are some 15 Democratic districts that are so far into the GOP win column that they weren’t polled. That would suggest at least 46 GOP pickups, plus whatever the party gets out of another 40 or 50 seats that some experts believe are in play. “We didn’t even poll in about 15 districts that are already too far gone for Democrats,” said Mark Penn, whose firm, Penn Schoen Berland, conducted the poll. “So that, along with our entire series of polls, points to something in the range of a 50-seat gain for Republicans.” Republican voters are also more likely to have made up their minds, sccording to the data. The Hill’s data confirm other public polling and expert predictions, some of which put the historic wave even higher than the 52 seats Democrats lost in 1994 and the 71 they lost in 1938. Let's read that line again: ” The Hill’s data confirm other public polling and expert predictions, some of which put the historic wave even higher than the 52 seats Democrats lost in 1994 and the 71 they lost in 1938 .” Getting into the specific races: Longtime Reps. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.), Chet Edwards (D-Texas) and John Spratt (D-S.C.) are all down by double digits, and each is polling at 40 percent or below. The three have held their congressional seats for 14, 20 and 28 years, respectively. Reps. Jim Marshall (D-Ga.), Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.) and John Salazar (D-Colo.) also trail their Republican challengers. Hey, remember when the DCCC tried to argue that the NRCC pulling its ads from Chet Edwards's district was a sign of momentum? Yeah, that was awesome. Here's the “good news” for Democrats: Despite the environment, several longtime Democrats show signs of strength. In both the at-large congressional districts in North and South Dakota, Blue Dog Democrats hold slight leads over their Republican challengers. Rep. Earl Pomeroy (N.D.) leads by a single point, while Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (S.D.) leads by three. In Indiana, Rep. Baron Hill (D) is up two points on his GOP challenger. The lone Democrat from this group who can truly breathe easy is Rep. Leonard Boswell (Iowa), who leads his Republican challenger, Brad Zaun, by 12 points, 49 percent to 37. Boswell leads by 17 points with independents and is pulling 10 percent of Republicans, according to The Hill’s poll. Herseth Sandlin and Pomeroy are each at 45 percent, and Hill is at 46 percent. They may lead in these polls, but I wouldn't have their Washington office staffs buy too many green bananas. I hope Jay Cost is wearing oversized purple pants for his impending transformation into a big green monster. Jim Geraghty
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The Hill Unveils One Last Brutal Round of House Polls
