No write-in bid for Mike Castle . His impact as a write-in candidate was looking pretty limited in that Rasmussen poll . But now Christine O'Donnell has to, for all extents and purposes, beat Chris Coons one-on-one. Robert Stacy McCain recently showcased how she's hitting Coons on taxes. Jim Geraghty
Here is the original post:
It’s a One-on-One Race in Delaware
We have our first sense of how a write-in bid by Mike Castle would impact Delaware's Senate race. Rasmussen polls Delaware likely voters and finds Castle only gets 5 percent, and that takes a chunk out of Democrat Chris Coons's support, but not quite enough, leaving Coons at 49 percent and O'Donnell at 40 percent. It is possible that a write-in campaign by Congressman Mike Castle could hurt Democrat Chris Coons more than Republican Christine O’Donnell in the Delaware campaign for U.S. Senate. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Delaware voters finds Coons with 49% support, while O’Donnell earns 40% of the vote. Castle, a longtime congressman who lost to O’Donnell in the state’s GOP Primary, picks up five percent (5%). Another five percent (5%) remain undecided. (See
One of my Delaware guys — very plugged into state Republican circles, closer to the Mike Castle fans than the Christine O'Donnell fans — sends me a bombshell: I am hearing from a credible source that Castle’s odds of mounting a write-in campaign are as high as 50-50.
A reader plugged into Delaware Republican politics — definitely the Mike Castle side of the party, not the Christine O'Donnell side — offers this assessment: O'Donnell's chances of winning are enhanced if Castle mounts a write-in campaign. Castle and Coons will essentially split New Castle County, and O'Donnell will clean up everywhere else. Very analogous to Rubio-Meeks-Crist in FL. Remember, O'Donnell obtained 180,000 votes in a losing effort against Biden in 2008. I would bet that only a small percentage of those votes would siphon off to Castle. The danger to Coons is that Castle will steal many independents and some Democrats as well. I do not believe Castle will mount a write-in, because he knows that it will help O'Donnell — unless his thinking is really muddled. So why then is Castle talking this up? Ego and hurt, for starters, on a personal level. Less charitably, the longer he vacillates, the harder for O'Donnell to reunite the GOP — having the effect of “freezing” the numbers against her for another week. I still believe the GOP made a huge mistake in denying Castle the Senate nomination, because he would have easily defeated Coons. In a two-way race, O'Donnell's odds are still very steep — perhaps 30 percent chance of winning, and that would require a wave. As an aside, a Castle write-in could help the GOP down-ballot. All the down-ballot GOP candidates in New Castle County are now in a much more precarious position with O'Donnell at the top of the ticket. I do agree with your assertion that O'Donnell is under-polling. So if I want Mike Castle to mount a write-in campaign to help O'Donnell, am I still a RINO? UPDATE: Jumping off a point made in the comments,
It’s been 24 hours since Delaware GOP Senate primary winner Christine O’Donnell dethroned nine-term Soros Republican incumbent Mike Castle. As of tonight, he still hadn’t placed an obligatory call to congratulate her — and his e-mail to supporters doesn’t mention her at all , according to the Delaware News Journal. Even more intriguingly, the paper tweets that Castle’s lines of communication worked quite smoothly when he took calls from…President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden last night: Does this White House see Castle as their newly adopted “pet?” Leave your best guesses about their conversations.
See the rest here:
Hmmm: What did Mike Castle talk about with Obama and Biden last night?
As I noted on Twitter earlier today , RNC chairman Michael Steele was out on the road to Fairfax, Va., for a rally for GOP congressional candidate Keith Fimian. Enjoy video of Michael Steele, sans forehead, discussing how the RNC will support Christine O'Donnell and whether he'll nudge Mike Castle to endorse her. (This is what happens when you have a writer do his own camera work.) Michael Steele: We've got a victory operation on the ground right now. That operation is being turned over to her team to work with the state party and work with the leadership to make sure that the two offices we've got, are fired up and ready to go — to not only help her but to keep that congressional seat, to keep Castle's seat and to win the other offices that are on the ballot this fall. That's number one. Number two, I've directed our finance department to contact their team to begin to talk about how we can help with fundraising. We know she's gone through a tough primary, and spent a lot of money so now we needs to raise that. We're asking people around the country, Republicans at large and far and wide to help us help her. This is an opportunity. My view of it is, I've got a good Republican running. The people in that state made that choice, and we support it, and we're ready to rock and roll and win. . . . NRO: Will you be doing anything to nudge Mike Castle to endorse her? Steele: Look, I encourage it because I believe in a unified party. I understand the sting of losing. I understand the sting that comes with a loss like that. Mike Castle is a buddy, and I've been involved in some of his campaigns in the past, as a neighbor in Maryland. So yeah, that part of it hurts personally for me. But this is a time where we kind of husband that feeling and we go out there and we reocgnize that this battle is bigger than one election or one individual. This is about our country, this is about our state. This is a chance to take a message that I think the people will trust again. I don't want that to get lost in the politics of who's up, who's down, who won and who lost. The primary is over. It is now time for every Republican in all of those contested primaries yesterday to rally around the nominees of our party for whatever office and to say that this now, is our moment to regain our footing and trust with the American people. Jim Geraghty
See the rest here:
Michael Steele on O’Donnell: ‘I’ve got a good Republican running.’
Long-shot Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell of Delaware rode tea-party momentum to the most unexpected upset of a tumultuous political year, soundly defeating GOP fixture Mike Castle in a bruising primary.
More here:
Tea Party Wins Upsets in Primary Votes
I thought this message from a former Delawarean now living in Philadelphia was illuminative: In all the coverage I've been reading about O'Donnell's defeat of Castle in Delaware, no one mentions the unmentionable dynamic of social class distinctions (especially when they play out in a state with fewer people than than most cities with NFL franchises). Both parties in Delaware have been led by blue-blood patrician types for eons. That probably isn't unusual in most states, but in a small state it plays out in a very interesting way. The big donors and loyalists of both parties are members of the same bar association, members of the same country clubs, do business together and send their kids to the same private schools. They live in the same neighborhoods, too. This co-mingling created a genteel centrist quality in Delaware politics that has not been challenged in any significant way, until now. All these folks live in Wilmington's old money neighborhood and its upscale suburbs. The rural southern counties (long the base for conservative Democrats) never counted for much politically — except for producing a few powerful codgers in the legislature. Now, the only voters the state GOP has left in any concentration are the rural conservatives, yet the party blue-bloods have ignored them (the 2006 Senate
I am told by a reader plugged in to Delaware politics that the key areas tonight include Brandywine Hundred, Pike Creek, and all Wilmington suburbs.
On August 20 , I endorsed Christine O’Donnell for the Delaware Senate GOP primary race. As I said on Sean Hannity’s TV show last week in repeating that endorsement, she is certainly far from perfect (who is?). But I think nine terms are enough for duck-and-hide, cap-and-tax liberal Republican Mike Castle — and it looks like GOP primary voters in Delaware are coming to the same conclusion as the primary looms tomorrow. I repeat: Entrenched incumbency is not an argument for more entrenched incumbency . Castle’s campaign questions O’Donnell’s trustworthiness. GOP primary voters need to question Castle’s. He was just one of two Republicans to vote for the $26 billion Edujobs/BigGovJobs bailout a few weeks ago. He supported the TARP bailout that benefited many of his political donors. And he is the co-founder of the George Soros-tied Republican Main Street Partnership — which, as I reported in 2005, successfully pressured the House GOP majority to cave in to enviros on the ANWR drilling ban. The Republican Main Street Partnership PAC supports ACORN-friendly, Big Labor-backing, tax-and-spend, abortion radicals in GOP clothing like Dede Scozzafava. This isn’t “Main Street.” This is the road to progressive hell. We already have one too many shady Soros Republicans in the Senate — and John McCain doesn’t need any more company. As I noted a few weeks ago, the stakes are raised — not just for Delaware, but for the nation — in this race because this is a special election for VP Joe Biden’s Senate seat. The next Senator from Delaware will serve the remaining four years of Biden’s term. Which means he or she will be seated immediately after election and will be in place to vote in any lame duck Senate session. Cap-and-tax is on the table for this session. From his record and from his radical enviro associations, we know what Castle would do in the name of “Republican Main Street” values to screw over not only Delawareans, but all taxpayers. Nine terms are enough. *** FYI: Michael Castle on Energy & Oil * Voted YES on enforcing limits on CO2 global warming pollution. (Jun 2009) * Voted YES on tax credits for renewable electricity, with PAYGO offsets. (Sep 2008) * Voted YES on tax incentives for energy production and conservation. (May 2008) * Voted YES on tax incentives for renewable energy. (Feb 2008) * Voted YES on investing in homegrown biofuel. (Aug 2007) * Voted YES on criminalizing oil cartels like OPEC. (May 2007) * Voted YES on removing oil & gas exploration subsidies. (Jan 2007) * Voted YES on keeping moratorium on drilling for oil offshore. (Jun 2006) * Voted YES on scheduling permitting for new oil refinieries. (Jun 2006) * Voted NO on authorizing construction of new oil refineries. (Oct 2005) * Voted NO on passage of the Bush Administration national energy policy. (Jun 2004) * Voted NO on implementing Bush-Cheney national energy policy. (Nov 2003) * Voted NO on raising CAFE standards; incentives for alternative fuels. (Aug 2001) * Voted YES on prohibiting oil drilling & development in ANWR. (Aug 2001) * Voted YES on starting implementation of Kyoto Protocol. (Jun 2000) * Establish greenhouse gas tradeable allowances. (Feb 2005) * Rated 33% by CAF, indicating a mixed record on energy independence. (Dec 2006) * Sign on to UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. (Jan 2007) * Supports immediate reductions in greenhouse gases. (Sep 1998) Michael Castle on Environment * Voted YES on $2 billion more for Cash for Clunkers program. (Jul 2009) * Voted YES on protecting free-roaming horses and burros. (Jul 2009) * Voted YES on environmental education grants for outdoor experiences. (Sep 2008) * Voted YES on $9.7B for Amtrak improvements and operation thru 2013. (Jun 2008) * Voted YES on increasing AMTRAK funding by adding $214M to $900M. (Jun 2006) * Voted NO on barring website promoting Yucca Mountain nuclear waste dump. (May 2006) * Voted NO on deauthorizing “critical habitat” for endangered species. (Sep 2005) * Voted YES on speeding up approval of forest thinning projects. (Nov 2003) * Supports grants for brownfields remediation. (May 2002) * Make EPA into a Cabinet department. (May 2002) * Rated 70% by the LCV, indicating pro-environment votes. (Dec 2003) * Strengthen prohibitions against animal fighting. (Jan 2007) * Focus on results, not regulation. (Sep 1998) *** Now for a health advisory. Internal debate on the Right is a good and healthy thing. But things have gotten out of hand in this race. How out of hand? Read this latest hate mail: Michelle, It’s me again….the Iraq War vet that wrote yesterday. The CONSERVATIVE Iraq War vet who wrote you yesterday. Why have you not taken issue with your website’s endorsement of Mike Castle. Allapundit has explicitly stated that he is the “RINO” who supports Mike Castle. Is it because you care more about making money than you do standing up for conservative principles. You lecture us not to support the RNC because of their support for RINOs and the efforts they make against TRUE CONSERVATIVES, and then you allow your website handlers to go out of their way to disparage Christine O’Donnell, and praise Mike Castle???? Michelle, if you do not overtly condemn their support of a RINO, then you are a fraud. In fact, you have all the power and ability to stop them from doing it….just tell them to stop supporting the RINO or they are fired. But you don’t…WHY? Why should we ever listen to you preach to us about RINOs if you are going to be such a hypocrite? Is Allapundit your husband or what??? What’s the deal??? Hope you’re happy when Castle gets elected. You are a fraud. Ann Coulter is speaking up for Christine. Mark Levin is speaking up for O’Donnell. Rush is too. So is Sarah Palin, Demint, the NRA!!! Where are you?????? Where is Michelle Malkin when it’s time to be counted? Silent. And Hypocritical. Fraud. -Robert “Freedom is in good hands…it’s in our hands.” -U.S. Army Soldier (specifically, me – this quote is attributed to me) Facts: I sold Hot Air in April. Allahpundit is not my husband. I endorsed O’Donnell last month before Palin, DeMint, and the NRA. But now I’m a candy-ass RINO fraud, too? Geez. Guess what? You can be a “TRUE CONSERVATIVE,” a blogger behind a keyboard, a talk show host behind a mic, a prime-time TV host in front of a camera, a Beltway pundit, or a heartland Tea Party activist and come to different, good-faith conclusions about this race. I know people in both the Castle camp and the O’Donnell camp. I’m not going to deride or disown my friends in the blogosphere or anywhere else because we disagree. That’s, well, unhinged. Everyone get a grip. Take a deep breath. Fight your best fight. Make your best arguments. Wait for the votes to be counted. Then march on and move forward.
See the original post:
The DE Senate GOP primary: Castle, Soros & a health advisory
