Looking Again at That Widely Cited AP Outlier Poll

On June 7, 2011, in barack obama, Uncategorized, by curits

We all remember the hullaballoo generated when the AP poll had Obama’s approval rating hitting 60 percent after the Osama bin Laden kill. I, and others, looked at the internals and expressed doubt that the survey’s sample, of 46 percent Democrats and 29 percent Republicans, accurately represented the actual makeup of the public — whether you’re talking registered voters, likely voters, or otherwise. The Associated Press hasn’t conducted another poll yet, but quite a few pollsters have since early May. Here’s Obama’s approval rating in the polls since then, as collected by RealClearPolitics : 49 percent (Reuters/Ipsos), 52 percent (Politico/GWU/Battleground), 55 percent (Fox News), 51 percent (National Journal), 49 percent (Democracy Corps), 54 percent (CNN), 52 percent (Pew), 48 percent (Rasmussen), 49 percent (Gallup), 47 percent (ABC News/Washington Post). In other words, the only one that came even close to 60 percent was . . . Fox News.

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Looking Again at That Widely Cited AP Outlier Poll

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I’ll Bet These Numbers Left Carville Wincing. Er, More Than Usual.

On September 8, 2010, in Uncategorized, by If Bush Did It

Democracy Corps, Carville's outfit, finds that among likely voters nationwide , 42 percent prefer the Democratic candidate, 49 percent prefer the GOP candidate. Democrats lead among the “drop off voters” — i.e., the folks not likely to vote this year — 47 percent to 40 percent. Jim Geraghty

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I’ll Bet These Numbers Left Carville Wincing. Er, More Than Usual.

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55 Percent of Likely Voters Find ‘Socialist’ an Accurate Label of Obama?

On July 9, 2010, in barack obama, Uncategorized, by If Bush Did It

The latest poll by Democracy Corps, the firm of James Carville and Stan Greenberg, has Republicans leading on the generic ballot among likely voters , 48 percent to 42 percent. Deep in the poll, they ask, “Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all.” On “too liberal,” 35 percent of likely voters say it describes Obama “very well,” 21 percent say “well,” 21 percent say “not too well,” and 17 percent say “not well at all.” In other words, 56 percent of likely voters consider Obama too liberal. When asked about “a socialist,” 33 percent of likely voters say it describes Obama “very well,” 22 percent say “well,” 15 percent say “not too well,” and 25 percent say “not well at all.”

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This Cycle’s Most Vulnerable Longtime House Democrat: John Spratt?

On July 8, 2010, in Uncategorized, by If Bush Did It

I chatted with a Washington Republican who's watching the House races closely, and asked whether there were any signs of old-guard House Democrats from deeply conservative, deeply Republican districts getting knocked off this cycle — incumbents like Chet Edwards in Texas, Gene Taylor in Mississippi, Dan Boren in Oklahoma. He said that all three could be considered potentially beatable this year, but the one that jumped out most to him was 14-term incumbent

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