The Cook Political Report moves ten House races, all one notch to the right. CA-11
St. Louis's alternative weekly paper notices that Nate Silver puts Missouri Democrat Robin Carnahan's chances of winning her Senate race at . . . 9 percent. I guess you could say his assessment is Blunt . Jim Geraghty
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Silver Sees a Sliver of a Chance for Carnahan
This new ad for Marco Rubio is a little soft-focus for my tastes, but I'll bet it goes over quite well with most audiences. Jim Geraghty
Read more:
Rubio’s New Ad: ‘The Most Important.’
Pollster Scott Rasmussen was very generous with his time late yesterday; our conversation can be found here . Jim Geraghty
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Warning: Serious Polling Geek Talk Ahead
Democracy Corps, Carville's outfit, finds that among likely voters nationwide , 42 percent prefer the Democratic candidate, 49 percent prefer the GOP candidate. Democrats lead among the “drop off voters” — i.e., the folks not likely to vote this year — 47 percent to 40 percent. Jim Geraghty
More:
I’ll Bet These Numbers Left Carville Wincing. Er, More Than Usual.
I've had a few readers in Maine write in, raving about GOP gubernatorial candidate Paul LePage , saying his life story sounds like Oscar-winning movie material. Today, Public Policy Polling puts him ahead : “Republican Paul LePage leads Democrat Libby Mitchell 43-29 in PPP's first look at the race with independent Eliot Cutler pulling 11%.” Now the Republican Governors Association is putting up an ad, touting him: Jim Geraghty
Continue reading here:
Is Maine Ready to Turn to a New LePage?
I wasn't sure if my schedule would leave much room for BlogCon , a big blogger get-together in Washington sponsored by FreedomWorks, but I will be able to make an appearance Friday afternoon in a debate session: 4:30 pm: How to be effective going into Nov. Debate between major left and right leaning sites held at Newseum. As I understand it, the plan is for Erick Erickson of RedState and myself to go up against two folks
Democrat Earl Pomeroy hits his GOP opponent, Rick Berg, for being a “career politician” because he's been a state legislator for 26 years . Of course, as a state legislator, Berg serves 80 days for every two years and when interim sessions are required. And Pomeroy became a state legislator… 30 years ago. And became state insurance commissioner in 1985. And he's been in the U.S. Congress for 18 years. But he insists the other guy is a career politican. I like this cheery video from a local skeptic of the ad: Does Pomeroy really think North Dakotans will forget he's been in office since January 1993? Jim Geraghty
In Virginia's 5th congressional district, incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello is trailing. He's either down by 26 percentage points, as Survey USA indicates , or down by 2, as the DCCC internal poll indicates . So that's why the DCCC is directing money away from Perriello — because they're so confident he'll win! Jim Geraghty
Link:
Latest DCCC Internal Polls Do Not Directly Quote Chip Diller
The National Republican Congressional Committee makes its first independent-expenditure ad of the year, aiming to refute — or is it refudiate? — the claims of Indiana Democrat Joe Donnelly that he's an independent: Well, perhaps Donnelly is independent except for the voting part. Jim Geraghty
Read this article:
Joe Donnelly’s Curious Definition of ‘Independent’
