It is worth noting that my particular bones to pick with Christine O'Donnell are: 1) She's running around telling voters she won two of three counties in her last Senate race. It's not true. One county wasn't even close.
Eroding support for Democrats is roiling dozens of House races and boosting Republican confidence that the GOP will retake the House in November.
The rest is here:
Outlook Dimming for Democrats
At the clip is Time ‘s Mark Halperin , making the case for a massive blowout in November, with a tidal wave washing out as many as 60 Democratic House incumbents. But Political Scientist Larry Sabato provides a more scholarly projection, ” The Crystal Ball’s Labor Day Predictions “: For decades I’ve advised students to let the facts speak for themselves, while avoiding the indulgence of shouting at the facts. In other words, we should take in all the available, reliable information; process it; and let the emerging mosaic tell its story—whether the picture pleases or not. The human (and partisan) tendency to twist facts into pretzels in order to produce a desired result must be avoided at all costs. We’ve been patient and cautious here at the Crystal Ball as a year’s worth of facts has accumulated. We’ve sifted the polls, cranked up the models, and watched the candidates and campaigns closely. All political observers have “gut feelings” about an election year, but feelings make for good songs and lousy predictions. Forecasting is an imprecise art. People who get too far ahead of the facts or are too insistent about what will happen are usually partisans—openly or in disguise. The Crystal Ball’s predictions are clinical. We are fond of people in both parties. We cheer for no one. 2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a question of degree. Several scenarios were possible, depending in large measure on whether, or how quickly, the deeply troubled American economy recovered from the Great Recession. Had Democratic hopes on economic revitalization materialized, it is easy to see how the party could have used its superior financial resources, combined with the tendency of Republicans in some districts and states to nominate ideological fringe candidates, to keep losses to the low 30s in the House and a handful in the Senate. But conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd. Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish, and public confidence quite low. The Democrats’ self-proclaimed “Recovery Summer” has become a term of derision, and to most voters—fair or not—it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered. Obama’s job approval ratings have drifted down well below 50% in most surveys. The generic ballot that asks likely voters whether they will cast ballots for Democrats or Republicans this year has moved increasingly in the GOP direction. While far less important, other controversies such as the mosque debate and immigration policy have made the climate worse for Democrats. Republican voters are raring to vote, their energy fueled by anti-Obama passion and concern over debt, spending, taxes, health care, and the size of government. Democrats are much less enthusiastic by almost every measure, and the Democratic base’s turnout will lag. Plus, Democrats have won over 50 House seats in 2006 and 2008, many of them in Republican territory, so their exposure to any sort of GOP wave is high. Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net . This is a “net” number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama’s Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today. There’s more at the link (and Sabato discusses GOP Senate prospects, the view on the governors’ races, etc.). As noted at the few times I’ve written about this, I personally wouldn’t make predictions unless based on a district-by-district analysis of partisan electoral trends. So here we have in Sabato’s analysis the kind of approach that’s probably best for making projections, and that’s topped off with the electoral modeling and the shares of the generic ballot. See my previous post, ” How Bad For the Democrats in 2010? ” So, yeah, I guess JBW was smart not to take me up on the wager challenge. But bet or not, I’m not going to hesitate from a bit of gloating on election night. The administration is awful and the Dems just suck. And I’m not going be shy of saying good riddance.
Read more from the original source:
Larry Sabato’s Labor Day Predictions
CQPolitics.com – White House spokesman Robert Gibbs on Thursday defended President Barack Obama’s track record of campaigning for House Democrats as new polling shows their party taking a nose dive.
Go here to read the rest:
Gibbs Defends Obama’s Efforts to Help House Democrats
(CQPolitics.com)
AFP – President Barack Obama’s Democratic allies will defy glum forecasts of a rout in November elections and keep control of the House and Senate, one of the party’s congressional leaders said Thursday.
See the article here:
Top Obama ally: Democrats will hold the US Congress
(AFP)
Over on the home page, I take a look at what America's political landscape will look like if the GOP takes care of business and wins as many races as the polls indicate these days. Redistricting could make good numbers for the GOP in the House even better. The Senate Democrats who won in 2006 would face, most likely, a much tougher environment in their reelection bids. And the White House would have to figure out how to govern without the trump card of massive legislative majorities. Working on campaigns can be fun, but often isn't. There's always more work to do. There's rarely enough people around to do it. If you're a volunteer, it's easy to say you've done enough. I hope campaigns put this article up on the wall in the offices, and I hope it reminds everyone in the grassroots what they can do if each person pulls out all the stops between now and when the polls close November 2. Jim Geraghty
Read more:
What November Could Bring
Pretty regularly this year, I've gotten an e-mail from readers asking . . . “Where's Obi-Wan Kenobi?” They're referring, of course, to my political mentor who appeared in the closing months of the 2004 election, an individual who had been involved in the highest levels of GOP politics for longer than I have been alive. (Some of the most influential minds in Republican political circles have had to dodge the query from Kerry Spot/TKS/Campaign Spot readers: “Are you Obi-Wan Kenobi?” When I repeat these anecdotes to Obi, he’s usually a little offended that anybody could think his thoughts could be mixed up with that guy’s .) As I've said earlier, the wisdom of a “Jedi Master” in the world of American politics is something that you must use carefully, and not too frequently. Our conversations in 2004 addressed the tracking polls , the late-breaking Osama bin Laden tape , the unreliability of those election-day exit polls , and whether Kerry actually won the final days . . . In 2006, he reappeared in early October , and we looked closely at the tracking polls, seeing the GOP base “come home.”* ** Obi and I have touched base from time to time this cycle, and now he’s offering his first thoughts for NRO readers. Q: Where are we? OWK: Well, Gallup has an historic GOP lead and Dick Morris is predicting over 80 seats . . . The vote has taken shape much earlier than usual, which means when it makes its final break it could be just that devastating. [I would offer the cautionary note Dick Morris also wrote a book in fall 2005 entitled Condi vs. Hillary .] Q: The atmosphere can’t stay like this for two months, right? Something has to go wrong for Republicans. OWK: Can the Democrats outplay the GOP in the closing weeks and save just enough to hold on? One problem area is that Republicans don’t usually get the media dynamic. Look at the week of the Obamacare vote — while Republicans were focused on legislative maneuvers and talking amendments, the White House created the right media climate, one where wavering Democrats could feel comfortable by citing the support of the Catholic nuns and the hospital associations and the CBO in a nice little series of TV set-pieces. Remember that Politico piece about the daily phone call of Rahm Emanuel, James Carville, Begala, and George Stephanopoulos on the White House line of the day? ABC News has been tracking pretty accurately on the White House various pitches this spring and summer — the Tea partiers are haters or Timothy McVeigh types — then the whole setup for the NAACP convention launched the “they’re all racist” theme, etc. So keep an eye on ABC, especially Stephanopoulos and also First Read and Politico — they’re usually the first-wave transmitters of the White House line. Believe me, they’ve already got a pollster or two who’s ready to bend some numbers and journalists ready to write about the “sudden Democratic surge.” I’d love to know which week they have picked for the “Democrats are back in business” story. They have tried it twice this summer, but neither polls nor events carried the storyline any further. They will badly need the networks' news departments to come through if there is a real domestic terrorist incident or some ugly display by someone on the right. This fall they will know no checks — October Surprises, maybe every day and all day. What this means, I don’t know — bombing Iran? Capturing Osama bin Laden or some other big name and announcing the news two days before the election? Get tough with Paris Hilton and send her to Guantanamo? [I am fairly certain my mentor is exaggerating. Having said that, I hope Paris pays her lawyers well.] Q: What can the GOP do? First, predict it. Just tell the people that the White House and Democrats will try and control the media dynamic and narrative. This is what they do. They don’t really know how to govern for the public good; if they could do that, they would be in better shape. What they do know to do is use media events to hold onto power, to go on television and blab. Second, Republicans ought to be using the words “October Surprise” endlessly. Hold a contest to see who comes up with the most creative suggestion for what the Dems might do. Third, and above all, they need to cut off the one escape route the Democrats have, particularly the “moderate” Democrats who are trying to run away from Obama. Get the word out that this election is not just about Obama — he is just a symptom of what the Democratic party has been since 1972. There are no moderate Democrats in Congress, because when you vote for a supposed Blue Dog you are voting for the enablers — the ones who keep the House and Senate run by liberals. And don’t sit on the lead — throw the damn ball! Keep the issues coming and keep the Democrats off balance. Berwick’s appointment was an amazing double down by the White House and the biggest gift of the campaign season. Every GOP Senate candidate can talk about the rationing that is coming to their state with this guy as the personification of it. He wants to decide whether grandpa or for that matter Dad gets his medical device or drug. It’s a little encouraging what Boehner is doing — calling for the economic team’s dismissal, and then going to the national-security issue. For the first time in a long while, the GOP is selecting issues and talking to a national audience and trying to influence the media dynamic. * I can hear it — “Hey, weren't you guys way off that cycle?” No, Obi was among the very few predictors who said that by the Thursday before the election the Dem lead would start to fall and do so rapidly into the weekend. He (and I) saw a late shift to the GOP in the generic polls. Republican internal polls were showing a loss of 50 seats in the House (that admittedly, I thought were too negative). On Election Day, 19 Republican seats won by five percent or less. Democrats won 31 seats in 2006. 31 + 19 = 50; that surge to the Republicans in the final days, worth about five percent or so, saved 19 Republican seats. As for 2008, both of us were relative optimists about McCain’s chances, seeing potential avenues for the GOP campaign until the very end, but acknowledged the strong undertow the ticket was swimming against. Obi, October 27, 2008 : The fear and anger factor over economic disruption is powerful. It could rise to a 1974 level where voters just want to express their anger and take it out on the incumbent and his party. That’s the nightmare scenario, where you lose all sorts of good Republicans in the Senate and House. Also note that Obi was among the few saying that McCain's final debate performance was huge and would give him a boost; one week later : Most heartening for conservatives will likely be a new Associated Press poll, conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media, which showed the presidential race as a one-point contest. According to this survey, Obama leads McCain among likely voters nationwide by just 44 percent to 43 percent. Jim Geraghty
Originally posted here:
Obi-Wan: ‘This Election Is Not About Obama. It Is About What Democrats Have Been Since 1972.’
The Hill reports on how the wealthiest members of Congress fared over the past year. Can you guess who tops the Capitol Hill 50 wealthiest list? And can you guess which party outnumbers the other on the list? Hint: Think Thurston and Lovey. Here are the details on the list: The 50 wealthiest lawmakers were worth almost $1.4 billion in 2009, about $85.1 million more than 12 months earlier, according to The Hill’s annual review of lawmakers’ financial disclosure forms. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) tops the list for the second year in a row. His minimum net worth was $188.6 million at the end of 2009, up by more than $20 million from 2008, according to his financial disclosure form. …There were a few other new faces in the Top 50, including Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.), who received an inheritance after his late father, Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.), died in 2009. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Rep. Tom Petri (R-Wis.) also made the list. Twenty-seven Democrats along with 23 Republicans make up the 50 richest in Congress; 30 House members and 20 senators are on the list. …Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), with a net worth of $160.1 million, is the second-richest member of Congress under The Hill’s formula, even though his wealth declined by more than $4 million in 2009. He is followed by Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.), who saw her net wealth leap to $152.3 million, a jump of more than $40 million from a year ago. The rest of the top 10 are Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.), McCaul, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Rep. Jared Polis (D-Colo.), Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.). Useful facts to keep on hand when the next Democrat class warfare talking points get hurled at ya. *** Related flashback: People in “fat cat”-infested houses shouldn’t throw stones *** And via Dan Collins, take a look at the Big Labor fat cat PAC expenditures for 2009-2010 just released.
Go here to read the rest:
Which party is the fat cat party?
