Video: 20 percent of likely voters are undecided, and they will fall into Newt’s camp, says son of former S.C. Governor Campbell.

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Newt Gingrich, not Mitt Romney, helped by South Carolina’s undecided voters

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Gallup offers its latest demographic assessments of Republicans, but offers a key point easily overlooked in a political realm where people talk about the Democrats’ lock on the African-American vote, the importance of the Hispanic vote, etc. Gallup’s numbers indicate the composition of U.S. adults — separate from registered voters or likely voters — is 72 percent white, 11 percent black, 13 percent Hispanic. For all the talk of a rapidly diversifying society, this is still an overwhelmingly white nation. An approval rating in the low 30s among whites — as Obama reached in September — is an extremely ominous indicator for his reelection prospects.

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America, a Little Less Diverse Than Some Might Think

ContributorNetwork – COMMENTARY | Former Godfather’s Pizza CEO and presidential candidate Herman Cain has pulled ahead of President Barack Obama in the latest Rasmussen Poll. Cain is polling 43 percent among likely voters against Obama’s 41 percent.

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Can Herman Cain Beat President Obama?
(ContributorNetwork)

No matter how hard the MSM tries to convince us otherwise, America is and always will be a conservative country at its core. (Rasmussen) — A plurality of U.S. voters continues to say they’re politically conservative when it comes to fiscal issue, but voters are more evenly divided on their social views. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 28% of Likely Voters say they are both fiscal and social conservatives. Just 12% say they are liberal in both areas, while 60% are some other combination. Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say they are conservative when it comes to fiscal issues such as taxes, government spending and business regulation. Thirty-seven percent (37%) characterize themselves as moderates in this area, while 14% are fiscal liberals.

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Poll: Only 14% Of American Voters Consider Themselves Liberal On Spending Issues, 43% Say They Are Conservative…

The Republicans ticket to victory in 2012. (Weekly Standard) — By a margin of 32 points (63 to 31 percent), independents favor the repeal of Obamacare, according to  the latest Rasmussen survey of likely voters . Independents who feel “strongly” (one way or the other) support the repeal of Obamacare by a margin of 31 points (52 to 21 percent). Likely voters as a whole favor repeal by a margin of 15 points (54 to 39 percent), while those who feel “strongly” (either way) support repeal by a margin of 17 points (43 to 26 percent). Moreover, as Rasmussen writes, “Most voters…believe [the overhaul] will increase the federal deficit at the very time President Obama and Congress are trying to find ways to make significant cuts in government spending.” By a margin of better than 3 to 1 (52 to 17 percent), Americans think Obamacare —  which would cost over $2 trillion in its real first decade (2014 to 2023), and far more in future decades — would “increase,” rather than “reduce,” deficits.

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Poll: By 63% To 31% Margin Independent Voters Favor Repeal Of ObamaCare…

I think what's most surprising about these numbers is that they're from a sample of “registered voters,” not “likely voters”: Fully half of registered voters say they would definitely or probably vote for a candidate other than President Obama if the presidential election were held today, according to a new Allstate/ National Journal Heartland Monitor poll. 50 percent of registered voters surveyed said they would definitely or probably vote for someone else, while just 40 percent said they would definitely or probably vote for the president. Just 22 percent of registered voters said they would definitely vote for Obama, while 18 percent said they would probably vote for him. 35 percent would definitely vote for someone else while another 16 percent would probably vote for someone else. Jim Geraghty

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National Journal: Only 40% Would Definitely/Probably Reelect Obama

Well, yeah. These people are freakin’ commies. At Rasmussen, ” Just 32% See Democrats’ Agenda as Mainstream “: A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that just 32% describe the agenda of Democrats in Congress as mainstream. Most (53%) say it is more accurate to describe that agenda as extreme, down slightly from 57% last August. Another 15% are undecided.

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Majority of 53 Percent of Americans Describe Democrat Agenda as Extreme

It's not yet clear we'll see a government shutdown, but the sense has been that Democrats think it would be a political winner for them and Republicans generally fear the public will turn against them. But that may not be the case : “Twenty-nine percent of likely voters would blame Democrats for a government shutdown, compared to 23 percent who would hold Republicans responsible, according to a new poll conducted for The Hill.The results are surprising because most people blamed the GOP for the last government shutdown, which occurred during President Clinton’s first term. A week before the 1995 shuttering, polls showed the public blamed Republicans by a two-to-one-margin.” Jim Geraghty

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Poll: Public Would Blame Democrats More for a Shutdown

You Can’t Take New Hampshire Seats for Granite

On November 1, 2010, in Uncategorized, by If Bush Did It

One of the few close House races that I don't have breaking the Republicans' way is up in New Hampshire, where some of my regulars are a little disappointed with former GOP congressman Charlie Bass's effort to retake his old seat. He'll have a pretty strong wind at his back, but apparently his message isn't as sharp as it could have been. The latest poll : The latest WMUR poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows Kuster with 43 percent, Bass with 40 percent and 3 percent for other candidates. Eleven percent remain undecided. In the 1st District, Republican Frank Guinta is slightly ahead of incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter. Guinta has 46 percent, Shea-Porter 39 percent and 5 percent favor other candidates. Twelve percent are undecided. The telephone poll of about 450 likely voters in each district was conducted Oct. 27-31 and had a margin of error of about 5 percentage points. Jim Geraghty

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You Can’t Take New Hampshire Seats for Granite

One more day: Open thread

On November 1, 2010, in Uncategorized, by If Bush Did It

I have to take care of family business this morning. Will be back in the afternoon – and I’m sure Doug will be dropping in to keep you informed and entertained in the meantime. What are you doing today to get out the vote, monitor voter fraud, and spread the word about conservative candidates before Election Day tomorrow? Talk amongst yourselves. *** Your GOTV motivation via Gallup : The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans’ voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House. The results are from Gallup’s Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot — depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup’s analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided. *** Flashback: Obama mocks, we remember

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One more day: Open thread