If I didn't know better, I would think the whole “No Labels” movement was a giant, self-parodying prank. I tuned in to the webcast of the group's kickoff to hear a woman saying, “You just have to look to Arizona to see extremists who are trying to divide us.” I guess I know how the group feels about the Arizona immigration enforcement law. Of course, I thought the point of the group was to stop labeling people; but I guess it's okay to label the overwhelming majority of Arizonans “extremists.” Bruce Braley, D-Iowa, introduced himself
No write-in bid for Mike Castle . His impact as a write-in candidate was looking pretty limited in that Rasmussen poll . But now Christine O'Donnell has to, for all extents and purposes, beat Chris Coons one-on-one. Robert Stacy McCain recently showcased how she's hitting Coons on taxes. Jim Geraghty
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It’s a One-on-One Race in Delaware
We have our first sense of how a write-in bid by Mike Castle would impact Delaware's Senate race. Rasmussen polls Delaware likely voters and finds Castle only gets 5 percent, and that takes a chunk out of Democrat Chris Coons's support, but not quite enough, leaving Coons at 49 percent and O'Donnell at 40 percent. It is possible that a write-in campaign by Congressman Mike Castle could hurt Democrat Chris Coons more than Republican Christine O’Donnell in the Delaware campaign for U.S. Senate. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Delaware voters finds Coons with 49% support, while O’Donnell earns 40% of the vote. Castle, a longtime congressman who lost to O’Donnell in the state’s GOP Primary, picks up five percent (5%). Another five percent (5%) remain undecided. (See
One of my Delaware guys — very plugged into state Republican circles, closer to the Mike Castle fans than the Christine O'Donnell fans — sends me a bombshell: I am hearing from a credible source that Castle’s odds of mounting a write-in campaign are as high as 50-50.
A reader plugged into Delaware Republican politics — definitely the Mike Castle side of the party, not the Christine O'Donnell side — offers this assessment: O'Donnell's chances of winning are enhanced if Castle mounts a write-in campaign. Castle and Coons will essentially split New Castle County, and O'Donnell will clean up everywhere else. Very analogous to Rubio-Meeks-Crist in FL. Remember, O'Donnell obtained 180,000 votes in a losing effort against Biden in 2008. I would bet that only a small percentage of those votes would siphon off to Castle. The danger to Coons is that Castle will steal many independents and some Democrats as well. I do not believe Castle will mount a write-in, because he knows that it will help O'Donnell — unless his thinking is really muddled. So why then is Castle talking this up? Ego and hurt, for starters, on a personal level. Less charitably, the longer he vacillates, the harder for O'Donnell to reunite the GOP — having the effect of “freezing” the numbers against her for another week. I still believe the GOP made a huge mistake in denying Castle the Senate nomination, because he would have easily defeated Coons. In a two-way race, O'Donnell's odds are still very steep — perhaps 30 percent chance of winning, and that would require a wave. As an aside, a Castle write-in could help the GOP down-ballot. All the down-ballot GOP candidates in New Castle County are now in a much more precarious position with O'Donnell at the top of the ticket. I do agree with your assertion that O'Donnell is under-polling. So if I want Mike Castle to mount a write-in campaign to help O'Donnell, am I still a RINO? UPDATE: Jumping off a point made in the comments,
Between Arlen Specter, Charlie Crist, Mike Castle refusing to endorse O'Donnell — a forgivable sentiment the day after a bitter defeat, less so as time goes by — and the rumor that Murkowski is running , the RINO-hunters have a point that the moderates never seem to be willing to compromise or put the party's interest first. The NRSC will help elect a lot of winning GOP candidates this year, but between Specter, Crist, and Murkowski, they have had an embarrassing cycle . . . Jim Geraghty
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Moderates Successfully Reinforce Image as Untrustworthy Hacks
I thought this message from a former Delawarean now living in Philadelphia was illuminative: In all the coverage I've been reading about O'Donnell's defeat of Castle in Delaware, no one mentions the unmentionable dynamic of social class distinctions (especially when they play out in a state with fewer people than than most cities with NFL franchises). Both parties in Delaware have been led by blue-blood patrician types for eons. That probably isn't unusual in most states, but in a small state it plays out in a very interesting way. The big donors and loyalists of both parties are members of the same bar association, members of the same country clubs, do business together and send their kids to the same private schools. They live in the same neighborhoods, too. This co-mingling created a genteel centrist quality in Delaware politics that has not been challenged in any significant way, until now. All these folks live in Wilmington's old money neighborhood and its upscale suburbs. The rural southern counties (long the base for conservative Democrats) never counted for much politically — except for producing a few powerful codgers in the legislature. Now, the only voters the state GOP has left in any concentration are the rural conservatives, yet the party blue-bloods have ignored them (the 2006 Senate
The AP calls the GOP Delaware Senate primary for Christine O'Donnell. It may not end up being close at all. 1. As much as I may have had many bones to pick, this is a victory for Christine O'Donnell and her supporters to savor. The turnout is set to go well ahead of the expected 45,000, and she's had no trouble finding the votes on a scale that large. Rep. Mike Castle and those who preferred him threw everything they had at her; she managed to persuade Delaware GOP primary voters that the key issue in the race was Castle's record and not hers. 2. Delaware Republicans are a much more conservative group that past elections would lead us to think. In retrospect, how did Mike Castle never have a primary challenger in 9 terms?
The early returns look very good for Christine O'Donnell. With 153 of 325 districts reporting, 47 percent of the state's total, O'Donnell leads, 55.4 percent to 44.6 percent for Castle. Jim Geraghty
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Is the Castle’s Foundation About to Crumble?
This evening, in the state of Delaware somebody will win the GOP primary, and declare something like, “And now, I ask for all Republicans to unite behind my candidacy.” At that moment, across the state, across the blogosphere, and across the country you will hear supporters of the other candidate wholeheartedly and loudly respond, “[your favorite expletive here]!” It’s hard to begrudge them. If you’re a Christine O’Donnell supporter, you will have just seen a woman who stands for you and your values absolutely trashed, six ways to Sunday by an opposing campaign, a state party, and a lot of voices who you once thought of as reliable allies. And for who? A fossil who voted the right way barely half the time? If you’re a Mike Castle supporter, you will have just seen a man who’s spent his career serving Delaware – with nary a peep of serious objection from the state’s GOP grassroots – rejected for daring to deviate from conservative orthodoxy and the chances of a GOP majority in the Senate seem to go up in flames. You’ve watched the opposition misrepresent his record. And for who? A freelance publicist who has never held office before? I’d like to say I see a good chance of reconciliation, but I would be lying. Everybody feels like they’ve been stabbed in the back. O’Donnell supporters feel like the establishment went after their candidate personally, trying to destroy her reputation. Castle supporters feel like they’ve been demonized for accepting a more moderate choice in a heavily Democratic state. Unity? The last time Christine O’Donnell lost a primary, she ran as a write-in and won 5 times as many votes in November. What possible motivation does she have to end her campaign tonight? What, she might alienate the party establishment? If there were six months until Election Day, there might be enough time to heal the wounds; time always does, if you have enough of it. I don’t like being characterized as some lackey for a “Ruling Class”, and I suspect Jeff Lord doesn’t like being called stupid. (I don’t like calling Jeff Lord stupid, either. It’s wrong for me to do that for a lot of reasons, high among them that it makes me sound like Mark Levin.) But sometime soon, Jeff and I will be pulling in the same direction on some other race or issue. (You know, presuming my Ruling Class masters let me.) The question is, can Delaware Republicans who have invested so much time and passion into this primary fight rise above it? Do they think that stopping Chris Coons is important enough to start laboring to help a candidate they probably can’t stand at this moment? The opponent in November once described himself as “ a bearded Marxist .” Since then, he’s lost he beard. Mike Castle might not do enough for conservatives, and Christine O’Donnell might not always represent them well. But the clean-shaven Marxist will never help a conservative cause unless it’s by accident. Jim Geraghty
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‘Now is the Time For the Idiots Who Supported My Opponent to Unite Behind Me…’
