Finally, a poll showing a House Democrat incumbent ahead: Democratic U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler begins the general election season with a 14-point lead over Republican challenger Andy Barr, although 37 percent of those surveyed have yet to form an opinion of Barr, the latest cn|2 Poll shows.The cn|2 Poll of 503 likely voters in the 6th Congressional District showed Chandler receiving support from 46.1 percent, while 32.2 percent said they planned to vote for Barr. Another 20.9 percent were undecided. Barr has his work cut out for him, but he has an incumbent below 50 percent and Barr's favorable/unfavorable split is a healthy 41.7/19.2. Obama's job approval/disapproval in this district is 46.6/50.3. Jim Geraghty
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The Barr Is Set in Kentucky
If you check the new poll out from National Journal , Americans by a 46 percent plurality support the continuation of Barack Obama’s economic policies. Yet, despite the misinformation at Daily Kos , the public is deeply divided over the extension of the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003: Regarding the tax cuts, 30 percent of Americans believe all of Bush’s 2001 and 2003 cuts should stay in place. That compared to 31 percent who believed that all of them should be repealed. Twenty-seven percent take the route Obama campaigned on: Tax cuts for the wealthy should be repealed, while the others should stay in place. That sentiment was consistent across income lines. Among those making more than $75,000, 26 percent said only the tax cuts for the wealthy should be repealed. For those making $30,000 to $74,999, 31 percent concurred. And among those making less than $30,000, 28 percent said the tax cuts for the wealthy should be overturned. Independents hewed closest to the overall sample. Twenty-seven percent said all the tax cuts should be kept in place. Thirty-two percent said they all should be repealed. Twenty-seven percent said the tax cuts for the wealthy should be repealed, but the middle class cuts should be kept in place. This debate has intensified recently as the legislative calendar winds down and an agreement on how to proceed on the issue, particularly in the Senate, has remained elusive. Unfortunately for Joan McCarter , one can’t combine all the subgroupings into “large majorities” supposedly opposed to extending the cuts. This table might help her out: Democrats and independents remain wary of a return to more market-oriented approaches to economic recovery. But time is running out. The 46 percent plurality is not a huge bulwark against anti-incumbent sentiment on the economy this year (Congress is down to 11 percent approval rating, and the majority party always bears the brunt of such throw-the-bums-out sentiment). And the 2012 primaries will commence a little more than 15 months from now. Basically, it’s on.
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Public Prefers Obama’s Policies, But Not by ‘Large Majorities’
In Arkansas, Republican John Boozman leads the incumbent Democrat, Sen. Blanche Lincoln, 57 percent to 32 percent . The more surprising result is in the governor's race, where 49.5 percent of respondents said they would vote for Mike Beebe, the incumbent Democrat, and 40.5 percent said they would vote for Republican Jim Keet. But don't get too excited about Keet's chances: “Beebe’s massive fundraising advantage — $2.7 million to Keet’s $59,000 as of June 30 — is going to quickly put more distance between the two candidates unless other circumstances surface.” Jim Geraghty
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Blanche Lincoln Might Want to Examine Post-Senate Career Options
