In today’s Morning Jolt , a lot of discussion of whether the Occupy Wall Street protests are anything resembling “mainstream,” a proposal to review Americans’ tithing, and oh yes, that onetime frontrunner for the GOP nomination: Momentarily Wondering if Pollster Forgot to List Rick Perry as a Candidate Option Keep reading this post . . .
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Hey, Didn’t You Used to Be Rick Perry?
I mentioned on Friday that “the only Congressional Democrats who understand the message of 2010 are the ones currently cleaning out their offices.” Pollster Glen Bolger sends along these results : There is strong support for keeping the current tax rates/extending the tax cuts instead of raising taxes/letting the tax cuts expire.Throughout the survey, we split sampled language on the issue. Half of the respondents (N=500) heard many questions that asked about plans to “extend the tax cuts or letting the tax cuts expire” while the other half heard many questions that juxtaposed a choice of“keep current tax rates or raise taxes.” Generally, the “keep current tax rates” language tested better than the “extend the tax cuts” language.Overall, 65% support extending the tax cuts, while 29% prefer to let the tax cuts expire. A stronger 83% would vote to keep current tax rates, while 14% would vote to raise taxes. I know some pollsters have shown better results for the Democrats with different wording. But as I mentioned Friday, few surviving Democrats on the Hill will voluntarily contemplate the notion that the American people have decided the problem is not that they're under-taxed but that Congress overspends. They look at our high unemployment, lousy growth rate, and dismal long-term financial outlook and prefer to conclude that the problem is “out there”, where all those greedy taxpayers live, instead a little bit closer to themselves. Jim Geraghty
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Surprise! Americans Not Enthusiastic About Higher Taxes for Anybody
I wasn't terribly familiar with Hays Research , the pollster in Alaska that is offering the shocking news that Republican Joe Miller is plummeting in that state's U.S. Senate race . First, the idea that Joe Miller is in trouble doesn't seem that implausible; he's been dogged by a variety of odd stories and missteps — Tweets that suggested he had the race wrapped up, his security guards detaining a reporter, admitting misuse of work computers . None of these stories seem big enough to change the race by themselves, but the drip-drip-drip may be giving some voters some second thoughts about him. But I'm a little wary of this pollster's results. In 2008 , Hays Research's final poll in the Senate race between Democrat Mark Begich and incumbent Republican Ted Stevens had the race looking like a near-blowout: Begich 48.3 percent, Stevens 40 percent. But on Election Day, Stevens fell just short, 46.5 percent to Begich's 47.8 percent. They also had the GOP presidential ticket with the current governor barely ahead: McCain-Palin at 46.6 percent, Obama-Biden at 43.9 percent. On Election Day, McCain-Palin won easily with 59.4 percent of the vote, Obama-Biden took 37.8 percent. So while it's quite possible that Miller's numbers have taken a tumble, I am skeptical that his circumstances are as dire as the Hays poll suggests. Whether or not this benefits the write-in candidate, Lisxzqq Murkwrwfcvplski*, remains to be seen. * For all Alaskan readers, this is the legal spelling of the incumbent senator's name and should be used for all write-in ballots. Jim Geraghty
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About That New Poll in Alaska . . .
This is sad. The South Carolina Democratic party offers a poll to insist the governor's race isn't over: A new poll completed just last evening shows some significant positive movement for Vincent Sheheen, with the race a virtual dead heat. Nikki Haley leads Sheheen 45%-41%, within the poll’s margin of error of 3.9%. Thirteen percent remain undecided. The poll was conducted by South Carolina pollster Crantford & Associates. The survey involved 634 active registered South Carolina voters. Data collection occurred Thursday September the 30th between 6:00 PM and 9:00 PM. It appears to be a poll of registered, not likely voters; the poll results indicate that the “Yes” responses to “Do you plan to vote in the governor's election?” are 100 percent. The only other pollster who's been surveying in this state is Rasmussen , who has Haley's lead between 12 and 17 percentage points — among likely voters. Looking at the internals, I notice this poll is 58 percent women, 42 percent men. That seems a little high; in 2008, the exit poll for South Carolina put it at 56 percent women, 44 percent men. They have 21 percent of South Carolinians “undecided” between Jim DeMint and Alvin Greene. Also, oddly, this poll skews much older than Election Day 2008; only 13 percent of South Carolina's electorate was 65 and older in 2008, while 34 percent of this sample is 65 and over. We should expect older voters to make up a larger share of the electorate in 2010, but that's a big shift . . . Jim Geraghty
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An Odd Poll Out of South Carolina . . .
I am told by a reader plugged in to Delaware politics that the key areas tonight include Brandywine Hundred, Pike Creek, and all Wilmington suburbs.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen was very generous with his time late yesterday; our conversation can be found here . Jim Geraghty
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Warning: Serious Polling Geek Talk Ahead
