As noted, one of my rules of thumb for my election predictions was that any incumbent below 50 is in at least a little trouble, and an incumbent in the mid-40s is in real trouble. The more well-known and well-established the incumbent, the more trouble they're in. I usually give those folks about one or two percent of the remaining undecided; that's how I ended up getting Massachusetts right. My last pick was California's Senate race, reluctantly picking Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer over Republican Carly Fiorina, spurred in part by Boxer reaching 49.5 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. But in between writing down the picks and now, she's slid to 48.5 percent , a very tenuous position in my usual formula. Looking at the RCP average for
Democrats say it is critical that they turn out African American voters this November. But for Robin Carnahan, the party’s nominee for Senate in Missouri, that is proving to be tricky.
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Democrats Conflicted on Black Vote, Obama
St. Louis's alternative weekly paper notices that Nate Silver puts Missouri Democrat Robin Carnahan's chances of winning her Senate race at . . . 9 percent. I guess you could say his assessment is Blunt . Jim Geraghty
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Silver Sees a Sliver of a Chance for Carnahan
I hear Joe Biden is doing a fundraiser for Missouri Senate candidate Robin Carnahan on October 7. Perhaps this is a make-up for the last time he was in the state and didn't mention her , and she didn't show up for his event. Jim Geraghty
Link:
Aww. It Looks Like Biden and Carnahan Are Reconciling.
In Missouri, Democrat Robin Carnahan is being assisted by
The first general-election
The other day, it was Virginia and Colorado moving forward with their efforts to protect their citizens against Obamacare coercion. Last night, Missouri voters voted with their feet, via the St. Louis Post-Dispatch: Missouri voters on Tuesday overwhelmingly rejected a federal mandate to purchase health insurance, rebuking President Barack Obama’s administration and giving Republicans their first political victory in a national campaign to overturn the controversial health care law passed by Congress in March. “The citizens of the Show-Me State don’t want Washington involved in their health care decisions,” said Sen. Jane Cunningham, R-Chesterfield, one of the sponsors of the legislation that put Proposition C on the August ballot. She credited a grass-roots campaign involving Tea Party and patriot groups with building support for the anti-Washington proposition. With most of the vote counted, Proposition C was winning by a ratio of nearly 3 to 1. The measure, which seeks to exempt Missouri from the insurance mandate in the new health care law, includes a provision that would change how insurance companies that go out of business in Missouri liquidate their assets. “I’ve never seen anything like it,” Cunningham said at a campaign gathering at a private home in Town and Country. “Citizens wanted their voices to be heard.” Ed Morrissey reads the tea leaves: Bear in mind that over 315,000 Democrats turned out to cast ballots in the primary that nominated Robin Carnahan, while over 577,000 Republicans hit the polls. That is about a 65/35 split — which means that a significant amount of Democrats either supported the ballot measure repudiating ObamaCare, or didn’t bother to cast a vote to defend the program. Actually, Prop C got more votes than the combined voting in both Senate primaries — which tells us something even more about the passion in the electorate. Democrats may have to hit the panic button after seeing the results from this swing state. ObamaCare set fire to the electorate last year, and that may be an inferno for Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid in November. Gateway Pundit Jim Hoft (welcome back!) has a round-up of the Prop C victory. May it be the first of many.
Total votes for Democrat Robin Carnahan in St. Louis County, Missouri , in yesterday's U.S. Senate primary: 58,775. Total votes for Republican Roy Blunt in
