Ba-boom! Summarizing the big poll dump the NRCC just provided the Washington Post: FL-8: Daniel Webster (R) 46, Alan Grayson* (D) 30 PA 3: Mike Kelly (R) 56, Kathy Dahlkemper* (D) 39 OH-15: Steve Stivers (R) 51, Mary Jo Kilroy* (D) 39 WA-3: Jaime Herrera (R) 51, Denny Heck (D) 38 NY-20: Chris Gibson (R) 48, Scott Murphy* (D) 45 MA-10: Jeff Perry (R) 44, Bill Keating (D) 42 IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R) 44, Phil Hare* (D) 41 PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 44, Chris Carney* (D) 37 VA-9: Morgan Griffith (R) 44, Rick Boucher* (D) 44 OR-5: Scott Bruun (R) 44, Kurt Schrader (D) 42 OH-6: Bill Johnson (R) 40, Charlie Wilson* (D) 40 (* = denotes incumbent) All of these results sound pretty plausible, but if you want to take some salt with an NRCC-commissioned poll, that's fine. I would note that any Democratic incumbent who's polling in the high 30s or low 40s in a cycle like this is probably doomed or close to doomed. Jim Geraghty
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Daniel Webster 46, Devil 30, and Other Interesting House Polls
The NRCC releases a bunch of their internal polls: In Arizona's 1st District, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick trails Republican Paul Gosar by 3 points, 45-42. In Arizona's 5th District, Democrat Harry Mitchell trails Republican David Schweikert by 1 point, 45-44. In Colorado's 3rd District, Democrat John Salazar is tied with Republican Scott Tipton, 45-45. In Florida's 24th District, Democrat Suzanne Kosmas trails Republican Sandy Adams by 10 points, 49-39. In Maryland's 1st District, Democrat Frank Kratovil trails Republican Andy Harris by 4 points, 43-39. In Oregon's 5th District, Democrat Kurt Schrader trails Republican Scott Bruun by 1 point, 45-44. In Virginia's 2nd District, Democrat Glenn Nye trails Republican Scott Rigell by 5 points, 45-40. None of these are done deals, obviously. But each of these Republicans can feel pretty good at this point. Jim Geraghty
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The NRCC Unveils Seven Pretty Good Internal Polls
One more example of an internal poll showing a GOP challenger leading a Democratic incumbent in a House race . . . except this is in a seat where the Democratic incumbent won by 16 percentage points last time. Republican Scott Bruun has released a new poll taken for his campaign by pollster Bob Moore that claims to show him in a tight race with Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Ore. The survey shows Bruun with 41 percent of the vote to 38 percent for Schrader.
