From Niall Ferguson, at Newsweek , ” Israel and Iran on the Eve of Destruction in a New Six-Day War .” The single biggest danger in the Middle East today is not the risk of a six-day Israeli war against Iran. It is the risk that Western wishful nonthinking allows the mullahs of Tehran to get their hands on nuclear weapons. Because I am in no doubt that they would take full advantage of such a lethal lever. We would have acquiesced in the creation of an empire of extortion. War is an evil. But sometimes a preventive war can be a lesser evil than a policy of appeasement. The people who don’t yet know that are the ones still in denial about what a nuclear-armed Iran would end up costing us all.
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Israel’s Case for War With Iran
AP – President Barack Obama has ordered new sanctions on the Islamic republic, including its Central Bank, in a move to enforce a law he signed in December.
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US levies new sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank
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Iran Vows to Hit Back at Any Country That Stages an Attack
Here’s what’s important in the financial world this morning: This week, markets will look to extend their gains to date. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release policy news and throughout the week look for a barrage of corporate earnings reports. News from Europe could affect this week’s market on news from Greece’s debt-swap talks and Monday’s European Union finance ministers meeting. They will talk about the recent fiscal-pact draft, according to MarketWatch. Over in the Asian markets, many markets will be closed for holidays but there will be news from Japan and Thailand’s central banks. Markets in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen will be closed from Monday through Wednesday; the Taipei market will be closed on Thursday. South Korea’s market will be shut down on Monday and Tuesday. Australian markets are closed on Thursday. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of India will make its policy announcement. In December, it did not have any interest rate hikes and suggested it was done with doing so and was ready to focus on growth. The Bank of Japan will also announce its policy news on Tuesday. On the following day, look for news nuggets of the bank’s moves in its policy statement. The Bank of Thailand will report its policy move on Wednesday. Back in the U.S. get ready for earnings. Lots of earnings. Chevy Volt is “safe”: U.S. regulators ended an investigation into why Chevrolet Volt electric cars caught fire, and said electric vehicles do not pose a greater risk of fire, according to Bloomberg. The conclusion by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration came two weeks after General Motors Co. told owners to bring the vehicles to dealerships for repair. “Based on the available data , NHTSA does not believe that Chevy Volts or other electric vehicles pose a greater risk of fire than gasoline-powered vehicles,” the agency said in an e- mailed statement today. EU vs Iran: The European Union formally adopted an oil embargo against Iran on Monday and froze the assets of Iran’s central bank, part of sanctions to pressure Tehran into resuming talks on its controversial nuclear program. Two Iranian lawmakers, stepped up threats that their country would shutter the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s crude flows, in retaliation for the EU oil sanctions on Tehran. Lawmaker Mohammad Ismail Kowsari, deputy head of Iran’s influential committee on national security, said Monday the strait “would definitely be closed if the sale of Iranian oil is violated in any way.” Tensions over the strait and the potential impact its closure would have on global oil supplies and the price of crude have weighed heavily on consumers and traders. Both the U.S. and Britain have warned Iran not to disrupt the world’s oil supply. Many analysts doubt that Iran could set up a blockade for long, but any supply shortages would cause world oil supplies to tighten temporarily. For its part, the United States has enacted, but not yet put into force, sanctions targeting Iran’s central bank and, by extension, the country’s ability to be paid for its oil. Economic Numbers and Fed Speak Monday: Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers. Tuesday: Ecofin meeting of EU finance ministers, Day One of FOMC meeting, and President Obama’s State of the Union address. Wednesday: Pending Home Sales index for December,FOMC policy announcement and Ben Bernanke Press Conference. Thursday: Durable Goods orders for December, Weekly jobless claims, December new home sales and leading indicators. Friday: Fourth-quarter GDP report and University of Michigan consumer sentiment for January. [ Editor’s note: the above is a cross post that originally appeared on Wall St. Cheat Sheet. ] The Associated Press contributed to this story.
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Morning Market Roundup: EU Adopts Iran Embargo, Volt Investigation Closed
Would Iran make the first move against the U.S. and fire torpedoes at the U.S. Fleet? Possibly. And if it did, according to a report citing a senior Iranian military commander’s announcement today, the Islamic Republic could choose to ambush the American fleet with submarines. Rear Admiral Farhad Amiri — who is also the Lieutenant Commander of the Iranian Army’s Self-Sufficiency Jihad – told Iran’s state news agency Fars that their navy has the best electric diesel submarines in the world. Amiri cautioned that while the U.S. has focused on Tehran’s “astonishing surface capabilities,” it has neglected to consider what could be the more dangerous undersea threat. Amiri also told Fars that “When the submarine lies on the sea bed, it can easily target an aircraft carrier that is passing nearby…that is one of the US concerns since Iranian submarines are noiseless and can easily evade detection as they are equipped with the sonar-evading technology.” The opening paragraph of the Fars story didn’t parse any words: A senior Iranian military commander underlined that the Iranian Navy’s subsurface vessels enjoy a high capability to confront enemies’ threats, and stated that Iran’s submarines are able to ambush and hit enemy vessels specially US Aircraft carriers from the seabed throughout the Persian Gulf. Iran officially states that it has 17 Ghadir diesel electric subs in its fleet, according to Business Insider . Despite the overwhelming superiority of the U.S. military, the Iranian threat to vessels and oil shipments in the Persian Gulf is real, particularly in a sneak attack scenario. Earlier this month Iran threatened the U.S. Fifth Fleet with attack after the John C. Stennis passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Army Commander Major General Ataollah Salehi said ”We advise, warn and recommend [the U.S. Navy] not to return this carrier to its previous location in the Persian Gulf.” “We are not in the habit of repeating the warning and we warn only once,” Salehi said. Whether this is pure bluster from Iran or a threat with teeth behind it remains to be seen. (h/t Business Insider )
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Report: Iran Claims Subs ‘Can Easily Target’ U.S. Carriers in Persian Gulf
AP – An Iranian lawmaker claimed Wednesday that President Barack Obama called for direct talks with Iran in a secret letter to the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader that also warned Tehran against closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
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Iranian lawmaker: Obama proposed talks; US denies
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AP – The Obama administration denied any role in Wednesday’s killing of an Iranian nuclear scientist, the latest in a series of events that have exacerbated tensions with Iran.
AP – The Obama administration Monday rejected Iran’s charge that a young Iranian-American man used a family trip to Iran as cover for espionage, after the Tehran government issued the first death penalty against a U.S. citizen since the Islamic Revolution 33 years ago. The U.S. suggested the decision was a political ploy.
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US condemns Iranian death sentence for American
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At Washington Post , ” Russian customs seize radioactive metal from Iranian’s luggage bound for Tehran .” Also, at San Francisco Chronicle, “Iran’s endgame is long overdue “: The International Atomic Energy Agency released documents last month that finally removed nearly all doubt that Iran is trying to produce nuclear weapons. And yet, as the world angrily reacts, all we hear from Russia and China, Iran’s consistent defenders, is shameful bleating. In fact, two days after the atomic energy agency released its report, Sergei Kiriyenko, head of Russia’s nuclear-energy corporation, announced that Russia was prepared to begin building new civilian nuclear reactors in Iran. Then Russia’s U.N. ambassador declared: “The sanctions track in the Security Council has been exhausted.”
AP – The Obama administration has given in to legislation that would apply sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank, despite weeks of opposition over concerns the measures may drive up oil prices or inflict severe economic hardship on American partners overseas.
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US nears new Iran bank sanctions
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