At NYT (FWIW), ” With Recovery Slowing, the Jobs Outlook Dims “: There is no more disputing it: the economic recovery in the United States has indeed slowed. The nation’s economy has been growing for a year, with few new jobs to show for it. Now, with the government reporting a growth rate of just 2.4 percent in the second quarter and federal stimulus measures fading, the jobs outlook appears even more discouraging. “Given how weak the labor market is, how long we’ve been without real growth, the rest of this year is probably still going to feel like a recession,” said Prajakta Bhide, a research analyst for the United States economy at Roubini Global Economics. “It’s still positive growth — rather than contraction — but it’s going to be very, very protracted.” A Commerce Department report on Friday showed that economic growth slipped sharply in the latest quarter from a much brisker pace earlier, an annual rate of 5 percent at the end of 2009 and 3.7 percent in the first quarter of 2010. Consumer spending, however, was weaker than initially indicated earlier in the recovery. Many economists are forecasting a further slowdown in the second half of the year, perhaps to an annual rate as low as 1.5 percent. That is largely because businesses have refilled the stockroom shelves that were whittled down during the financial crisis, and there will not be much need for additional orders. Additionally, the fiscal stimulus measures that have propped up growth are expiring. Proposals for individual programs like another expansion of unemployment benefits have been beaten back each time they have come up in Congress. “We need 2.5 percent growth just to keep the unemployment rate where it is,” said Christina Romer, chairwoman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers. “If you want to get it down quickly, you need substantially stronger growth than that. That’s what I’ve been saying for the last several quarters, and that’s why I’ve been hoping that we’ll please pass the jobs measures just sitting on the floor of Congress.” The approaching midterm elections, however, may harden the political standoff after Congress returns from its August recess. As a result, pressure will probably increase on the Federal Reserve to use its available tools to prevent a double-dip recession. Recent reports from Fed policy makers suggest the central bank has become increasingly worried about where the economy is headed. American businesses, if not American households, seem to be hanging on. Image Credit : Blogmocracy .
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Outlook Dims on (Obama) the Economy
I think in a normal year, the ethical troubles of Charlie Rangel — coupled with the reports of the Sestak and Romanoff job offers and the Cornhusker Kickback, the Louisiana Purchase, and other lingering scandals — could be a potent political message, on par with Democrats' 2006 “culture of corruption.” But this isn't a normal year, and I figure that while voters will not approve of Rangel and the rest, the impact on most races outside the political figures caught directly in scandals will be minimal. The economy and jobs loom too largely in the public's mind; they're worried about how they're going to pay the rent or mortgage and whether their job will be around next year. They may not like Charlie Rangel ignoring the rules everyone else has to follow, but his misdeeds will seem far away compared to those pressing worries, other than the fact that it's further evidence that members of Congress are more interested in helping themselves than helping a troubled country. What's rather fascinating about 2006 in retrospect was how the Democrats persuaded the country that a dramatic change was necessary, even as U.S. economy performed pretty well : The U.S. economy turned in a surprisingly strong performance last year, new data show, growing 3.4 percent despite higher interest rates, high oil prices and the sharpest housing downturn in 15 years. The report from the Commerce Department, showing that economic growth picked up in 2006 from the 3.2 percent growth of 2005, dispelled any lingering doubts about the momentum of the economy going into this year. Many economists predict growth will slow this year, but gone are the recession worries of last summer. “Nothing, other than an external shock, will derail the economy this year,” said Eugenio J. Alem?n, senior economist at Wells Fargo. “The economy's in good shape.” Unemployment and inflation fell last year while wages and salaries rose at their quickest pace in five years, according to a series of recent government reports.
Few of my assessments in this cycle have met with more derision than my argument that Phil Hare, an Illinois Democrat, is supremely vulnerable. His GOP opponent, Bobby Schilling, hired Magellan Strategies to conduct a poll of the district. Magellan conducted an automated survey of 715 likely voters in the 17th congressional district of Illinois: “The interviews were conducted on July 12th of 2010. This [poll has] a margin of error of +/‐ 3.6% at the 95% confidence interval. The survey results are weighted to reflect past turnout demographics from the 2008, 2006, 2004 and 2002 general election cycles.” If you're a skeptic of campaign-commissioned polls, fine. But note that the unemployment rate in Illinois is 10.4 percent (it was 10.8 percent last month), the state is sick of the machine politics that put Rod Blagojevich in place, and the national mood is frustrated and angry. Just how unlikely is it that Phil Hare would be in trouble? “If the election for Congress was being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates was that one was a Republican, and the other was a Democrat, for whom would you vote?” Among all voters, 44% support the generic Republican candidate for Congress and 35% support the generic Democrat candidate. Phil Hare’s image rating is “upside down,” with 27% of voters having a favorable opinion of him, and 41% having an unfavorable opinion of him. Among all voters, 27% approve of the job Phil Hare is doing and 43% disapprove. Among all voters, only 24% responded they would reelect Phil Hare, 50% think it is time to give someone else a chance to do a better job and 26% are undecided on the question. “If the election for Congress was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bobby Schilling, Republican, or Phil Hare, Democrat?” Among all voters, Bobby Schilling leads Phil Hare, 45% to 32%, and 23% are undecided. The bulk of Bobby Schilling’s support is being driven by male voters. Among men, Bobby Schilling leads Phil Hare by 28 points, 54% to 26%. Among women, it is a much closer race, with Bobby Schilling leading by 1 point, 37% to 36%, and 27% are undecided. Even if this poll overstates Schilling's support by 10 percentage points . . . he's still ahead. For those who gripe that Magellan is a partisan firm, note their Maryland gubernatorial numbers seem to be in the ballpark of nonpartisan pollsters. Bobby Schilling's website can be found here . Keep an eye on this race. Either I'm way ahead of the pack in finding one of 2010's most unlikely upsets, or this poll is completely wrong. Jim Geraghty
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GOP’s Schilling Leads Democrat Incumbent Phil Hare, 45-32
All hat, no cattle Ken Salazar needs another ass-kicking by Michelle Malkin Creators Syndicate Copyright 2010 When President Obama picked former Democrat Sen. Ken Salazar as his Interior Secretary last year, the Coloradan donned a 10-gallon hat and dubbed himself the “new sheriff in town.” But Cowboy Ken is the one who needs to be run out on a rail. In his continued quest to shut down offshore drilling, Salazar has run roughshod over scientific integrity, transparency, and the Gulf Coast economy. Two federal courts have batted down the White House-approved, Salazar-directed drilling moratorium. Outraged scientists — appointed by the Obama administration, mind you — blasted Salazar for doctoring their work and contradicting their conclusions to bolster his manufactured case for the sweeping six-month ban. Undaunted, Salazar conjured up a “revised” moratorium rubber-stamped by oil spill czar Michael Bromwich, who sheepishly admitted that the new ban was “roughly congruent with the original moratorium.” The sham changes would permit some drilling rigs to re-start operations – but only under onerous, fantasyland testing conditions that industry leaders say would be virtually impossible to meet. In short, Salazar’s “new” moratorium is a lot like Salazar himself: All hat, no cattle. The Interior Secretary then strode into the first hearing of the presidential oil spill commission this week to tell the panelists that he wanted their work to “inform” his book-cooked deepwater drilling ban. It was, essentially, Salazar guiding the dog-and-pony show participants to bark and neigh on command. The panelists were “stunned” by Salazar’s explicit expectation of policy support, according to hearing observers, because weighing in on the moratorium had not been a part of their original mandate. None of the panelists, conveniently enough, has actual technical expertise in deepwater drilling. So on what, exactly, can they “inform” Salazar? No doubt Salazar and his superiors at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue have soaked up the online anti-drilling rants of prominent oil spill panelist Frances Beinecke. She’s a leading official at the rabidly anti-corporate Natural Resources Defense Council, where she publicly called for offshore drilling bans five times over the past two months before snagging a seat on Obama’s “expert” panel. NRDC was one of the leading environmental lobbying voices pushing for the commission in the first placde. The eco-tail is wagging Team Obama’s dog. The good news is that not all the panelists are rolling over. Co-chairs William Reilly and Bob Graham absorbed an earful from local residents, small business owners, and public officials from the Gulf region this week. Louisiana Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu decried the economic devastation Salazar is overseeing: “Even the revised moratorium will force thousands of hardworking Louisianans and others along the Gulf Coast into the unemployment lines.” Lafourche Parish (La.) President Charlotte Randolph blasted the zero-risk tolerance mentality of Salazar and Beinecke, illustrating the folly behind the offshore drilling moratorium: If “safety” demands a blanket halt to deepwater drilling, she said, then all oil tanker traffic in the Gulf of Mexico should be halted, too. “An oil tanker is a four times greater risk of spilling its cargo than an oil well blowing out,” Randolph pointed out. “Tankers carrying 3 million barrels of oil traverse the Gulf daily en route to Houston.” That’s roughly the amount of oil BP spilled over the last three months. After the first hearing this week, Reilly openly challenged the White House foot-dragging on 33 oil rig safety assessments, wondering “why it’s going to take so long to convince people the existing rigs are safe.” For his part, Graham blasted the “disconnect between Washington and the Gulf region about the sense of urgency needed.” In Washington, at least one watchdog has pegged Salazar as a crooked shooter. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Ranking Member Darrell Issa exposed the Interior Secretary’s serial obstructionism in a letter released Thursday on Salazar’s failure to comply with 45 document requests related to the feds’ post-spill response. “The lack of cooperation is appalling for an Administration that prides itself on transparency and openness with the American people,” Issa noted. “Indeed, it appears that the Administration is more concerned with hiding from the tough questions than answering them.” While Salazar ducks and dithers, deepwater oil drillers are canceling contracts or moving their rigs overseas – and American jobs along with them. Diamond Offshore moved one of its rigs to Egypt. Murphy Oil Company is also moving operations to the Congo. And Bloomberg News reported that “the number of offshore rigs operating in U.S. waters has plunged 71 percent to 16 from 56 before the blowout, according to surveys by Baker Hughes Inc.” The new sheriff’s in town alright — and he’s shooting the Gulf Coast economy in the foot, head, and heart. Heckuva job, Kenny.
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Ken Salazar needs another ass-kicking
