Will Mexico turn to the left in 2012?

On February 6, 2012, in Uncategorized, by VecchiarelliKearny599

Signs are strong that the center-right National Action Party will be out of power this year.

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Will Mexico turn to the left in 2012?

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As potential opponents have spent the better part of the last year at each other’s throats, the Obama campaign has been quietly building up their war chest. POLITICO reports that the President’s reelection campaign raised $40 million in the last three months  of 2011, ending the year with $82 million in the bank and $3 million in debt. A separate joint fundraising committee supporting Obama’s reelection and the Democratic National Committee,  reported  raising $24 million in the fourth quarter, spending $23 million and finishing the year with less than $1 million on hand. The Obama campaign also released a list of 450 major bundlers who combined to collect at least $74.4 million for his campaign and the DNC. Some on the list of big money bundlers live up to the stereotype from Obama’s critics of who most supports the President; entertainment elites living in Hollywood and New York. Top fundraisers include movie producer Harvey Weinstein, DreamWorks CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg, Eva Longoria, gay power couple James Costas of HBO and former White House interior decorator Michael Smith, and Vogue editor-in-chief Anna Wintour. Wintour is the inspiration for Meryl Streep’s character in The Devil Wears Prada. Shamed investor and former New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine was also on the list individuals having raised over $500,000 for the Obama campaign. AP notes that list includes two fundraisers linked to Solyndra LLC, the California solar company that received a $528 million federal loan and then later declared bankruptcy, prompting a federal investigation. Steve Spinner, an Energy Department adviser, raised at least $500,000 and Steve Westly, a venture capitalist who was an unpaid adviser to the department, raised between $200,000 and $500,000.

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Obama campaign clocks in $82 Million for 2011

Gingrich Aims to Conjure Spirit of ’76—1976, That Is

On February 1, 2012, in Uncategorized, by KavinHildring485

Gingrich is promising to do this year what Reagan did in 1976—stunning the political world by challenging Ford all the way through the primary season and into the national Republican convention. But is that realistic?

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Gingrich Aims to Conjure Spirit of ’76—1976, That Is

“The rosy predictions for revenues and reduced healthcare spending can come to fruition, but not with the current socialist policies as the baseline.” The budget season has officially commenced today with CBO’s release of its annual budget and economic outlook.  Here are some of the major takeaways from the report: FY 2012 Budget The topline figure that the media will focus on is the projected $1.070 trillion budget deficit for FY 2012, down from $1.3 trillion last year.  However, as CBO notes several times throughout the report, the reduction in this year’s deficit is predicated on several assumptions. 1)      Revenues :  The entirety of this year’s deficit reduction comes from higher projected revenues, roughly $220 billion.  CBO is forced to score current law, which assumes that the payroll tax cut will expire at the end of February.  Another 10-month extension, which is almost a forgone conclusion, would cost over $100 billion.  Also, the CBO baseline does not include a likely AMT patch, and extension of many annual “tax extenders,” such as the credit for research and development.  It’s very likely that the extensions will wipe out the entire revenue gain from this year over 2011, thereby eliminating the reduction in the deficit. 2)      Outlays :  CBO is projecting $3.601 trillion in spending, up just $3 billion from last year.  Obviously, this projection does not account for a full-year extension of unemployment benefits and doc fix, which could add as much as $70 billion to this year’s spending total. 3)      Defense :  Outlays for defense will be reduced by another $20 billion. When these factors are accounted for, it is clear that non-defense discretionary spending will not decrease significantly, while mandatory spending will continue to rise.  If you assume the alternative scenario, in which most of the temporary tax and spending measures are extended, the deficit should be about the same as last year; around $1.3 trillion.  In other words, there will be slightly more revenue this year, but increased spending as well. 10-Year Budget Frame: 2013-2022: Over the next 10 years, CBO is projecting $41.179 trillion in spending and $44.251 trillion in revenue, for a deficit of $3.072 trillion.  The $3 trillion figure is a real lowball estimate of our projected debt for several reasons.  Under that scenario, our annual deficits would dip to $450 billion in just two years, and stay below $400 billion indefinitely.  They are assuming rosy pictures of revenue increases, along with the expiration of the Bush tax cuts.  Furthermore, CBO notes, that Medicare and Medicaid spending have always increased above expectations, and with Obamacare taking effect, the real cost of healthcare spending will blow out the budget deficits – way beyond $3 trillion. Another important long-term factor is interest on the debt.  At present, interest rates are at historic lows, but they will eventually revert back to their historic norms.  That could add several trillion more to the 10-year deficit. The rosy predictions for revenues and reduced healthcare spending can come to fruition, but not with the current socialist policies as the baseline. Economic Outlook CBO is projecting more stagnation for the next few years.  For 2012, they are seeing 2% GDP growth and 8.9% unemployment.  For 2013, they are projecting a pullback to just 1.1% growth and a spike in unemployment to 9.2%.  With these bleak economic figures, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which revenues increase substantially and spending on welfare programs decline (as projected by the report).  How can revenues go from 16% of GDP to 20% in just two years, even without the extension of tax cut provisions?  Then again, it’s all a moot point.  Budget deficits tend to be much higher than the figures projected in CBO reports, in part, due to some of the aforementioned factors. Social Security Social Security is, by far, the largest expenditure for the foreseeable future.  This year, SS outlays will top $770 billion, accounting for 21.3% of the entire federal budget for FY 2012.  From 2013-2022, SS spending will top $10.5 trillion, almost 24% of the budget.  On the revenue side, Social Security taxes will only rise $627 billion this year and $8.9 trillion over 10 years.  Once again, this projection does not factor in any future payroll tax cuts. Another noteworthy point is that the Social Security Disability Insurance trust fund will be exhausted in 2016. Remember that the Social Security Trust Fund is a notional accounting gimmick and is nonexistent.  Consequently, every penny of SS benefits that is not covered from the payroll tax will augment our deficit.  The real question is why one quarter of the budget is consumed by a program that should be controlled by the individual.  Why are we bankrupting our future for a program that offers a worse rate of return than private accounts, which would not cost the government and future generations of Americans a penny? Medicare Gross Medicare spending, the second largest domestic spending program, will reach $560 billion this year and $7.8 trillion over 10 years.  Net Medicare spending (subtracting $1.2 trillion in offsetting revenues from premium payments from seniors) will be about $6.55 trillion.   This year’s outlays would have been higher if not for a shift in certain payments from fiscal year 2012 into fiscal year 2011 because the first scheduled date for payments to health plans in 2012 fell on a weekend.  Revenues from the Medicare payroll tax will only bring in roughly $2.8 trillion – and that is including the payroll tax increases under Obamacare.  As such, the Medicare hospital insurance trust fund, which is funded by payroll taxes, will be exhausted in 2022. Now that it is incontrovertibly clear that government has failed at controlling healthcare and retirement costs, is it too much to ask that we allow personal ownership and the free-market to get a bite at the apple? Liberals always complain that seniors will be left to their own devices under our policies.  Judging by the future debt figures, I think we would all rather be on our own, as opposed to shouldering the burden of crushing debt payments. Cross-posted to The Madison Project

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CBO’s Budget Report: Perennial Debt for Generations

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Swing Nation

On January 30, 2012, in Uncategorized, by ggallin

The Wall Street Journal is visiting three swing counties in swing states—Florida, Ohio and Colorado—periodically this year to gauge how the election campaign is unfolding.

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Swing Nation

Hot Go Daddy Super Bowl Ads 2012!

On January 29, 2012, in Uncategorized, by jessicamounst

Are these ” sleaze merchant ” ads? Better check in with TrogloPundit, who doesn’t seem to be protesting too much: ” Hey, you guys wanna see this year’s GoDaddy.com Superbowl ads? ” Also, at Vancouver Sun , ” Sexy Super Bowl ads set to get racier .” PREVIOUSLY : ” Adriana Lima Super Bowl Commercials .”

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Hot Go Daddy Super Bowl Ads 2012!

ContributorNetwork – COMMENTARY | During his State of the Union speech, President Barack Obama called on states to pass laws requiring that children remain in school until age 18. According to Chris Moody’s posting in The Ticket, Obama was using his “bully pulpit” to tell local school districts how to do their jobs. It offended some Republicans, Moody writes, including Utah Sen. Mike Lee, who had to fight the urge to become this year’s Joe Wilson.

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Obama’s Drop-Out Proposal Won’t Make Kids Learn
(ContributorNetwork)

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The Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday that a full economic recovery could take “nearly three more years,” and it went further than ever to assure consumers and businesses that they will be able to borrow cheaply well into the future. The central bank said it would probably not increase its benchmark interest rate until late 2014 at the earliest – a year and a half later than it had previously said. Some economists said the new late-2014 target might foreshadow further Fed action to try to “invigorate the economy.” Julie Coronado, an economist at BNP Paribas, said she thought the Fed was indicating that it will step up its purchases of bonds and other assets if economic growth fails to accelerate — even if it doesn’t slow. That is a “very low bar indeed,” she wrote in a note to clients. Other analysts fear that the Fed’s longer-term timetable for a rate increase could hamstring it, even though Bernanke stressed the Fed’s ability to adjust rates “as it sees fit.” Dana Saporta, an economist at Credit Suisse, worried that the much-longer timetable would compromise the Fed’s credibility if it must raise rates sooner because of unexpectedly strong growth and inflation. “It’s striking that the Fed would make an implicit commitment for almost three years,” Saporta said. “It seems like an awfully long time to make such a statement. Given that no one knows what will happen … the (Fed) may eventually regret this.” The new timetable showed the Fed is concerned, if not surprised, that the recovery remains “stubbornly slow.” However, the Fed also thinks inflation will stay tame enough for rates to remain at record lows without igniting price increases. Chairman Ben Bernanke cautioned that late 2014 is merely its “best guess.” The Fed can shift that plan if the economic picture changes. But he cast doubt on whether that would be necessary. “Unless there is a substantial strengthening of the economy in the near term, it’s a pretty good guess we will be keeping rates low for some time,” he said. The bank’s tepid outlook suggests it’s prepared to do more to “help” the economy. One possibility is a third bond-buying program that will supposedly drive down rates on mortgages and other loans in an effort to convince consumers and businesses to borrow and spend more. In a statement after a two-day policy meeting, the Fed said it stands ready to adjust its “holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in the context of price stability.” It was the first time the Fed had released interest-rate forecasts from its committee members. It will now do so four times a year, when it also updates its economic outlook. The central bank slightly reduced its outlook for growth this year, from as much as 2.9 percent forecast in November down to 2.7 percent. For the first time, the Fed provided an official target for inflation – 2 percent – in a statement of its long-term policy goals. The bank sees unemployment falling as low as 8.2 percent this year, better than its earlier forecast of 8.5 percent. December’s unemployment rate was 8.5 percent. However, that number is very much debatable. As noted earlier on  The Blaze (via  Zero Hedge ): One does not need to be a rocket scientist to grasp the fudging the BLS has been doing every month for years now in order to bring the unemployment rate lower: the BLS constantly lowers the labor force participation rate as more and more people “drop out” of the labor force for one reason or another. While there is some floating speculation that this is due to early retirement, this is completely counterfactual when one also considers the overall rise in the general civilian non institutional population. …we are redoing an analysis we did first back in August 2010, which shows what the real unemployment rate would be using a realistic labor force participation rate… It won’t surprise anyone that as of December, the real implied unemployment rate was 11.4%  – basically where it has been ever since 2009… Bernanke noted that the Fed expects only moderate growth over the next year. He pointed to the persistently depressed housing market and continued tight credit for many consumers and companies. The Fed described inflation as “subdued,” a more encouraging assessment than last month. “This is a fairly clear-cut signal that inflation is not on their radar at this point,” Tom Porcelli, an economist at RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a research note. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Does This Latest Decision by the Fed Foreshadow Future Plans for the Economy?

Wow! Obama started this year’s theme for his election the same as the last time…redistribution of wealth. In a speech that is likely to set the theme of his 2012 re-election bid, Obama said “the basic American promise” that hard work can help you accomplish your dreams of owning a home and supporting

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Obama’s State of the Union: Hey Middle Class, If Government Doesn’t Do a Better Job Redistributing Wealth Then You Are Toast

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AP – President Barack Obama’s Democratic allies in the Senate promised Wednesday to press ahead this year with legislation drawn from his plans to require millionaires to pay at least 30 percent in taxes and curb tax preferences for companies that ship jobs overseas.

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Senate Democrats promise to push Obama tax agenda
(AP)